Before escaping the dreariness of a Seattle winter for a few days, I ordered some holiday presents, so we’d have something to play with on our return. Having just watched the first Iron Man recently, I was curious as to the state of the ‘Jarvis’ form of personal computing. Then I read the article by Mark Zuckerberg and I thought, well, alright then, I’ve got to give this a go.
Full disclaimer as usual; I’m a Microsoft employee and have been for 18 years, but I’m not company apologist.
So, I placed the order and off we went. Upon arriving home, there was a package (not stolen from the porch oddly enough), and I thought, “what might that be?”. It was tiny. I opened it up, and sure enough, it was the Amazon Echo Dot.
I purchased it on a sale of $40. It’s since gone up by $10. I was really surprised how small it is. It fits in the palm of my hand roughly. At this price point, it’s almost an impulse buy for a tech enthusiast. Roughly the same price as a functional Raspberry Pi, even cheaper considering the Pi need a power supply, uSD card, monitor, keyboard and mouse.
Setup was a relative breeze, with the help of an app, which required the iPad, or other non-Windows tablet, to setup. Press and hold a button for about 5 seconds, tell it your home network’s wifi password, and you’re all set.
Then you start talking. Right out of the box, the easiest things to test are playing of music and asking about the weather: Alexa, what’s the weather like? Of course, we just came in from outside, so we already know, but it was fun.
My wife got into it by asking to play some Hindi songs: Alexa, play hindi songs.
Alexa obliged, and started playing from some random play list of hindi songs. Then we tried to get specific: Alexa, play Chammak Challo…
That one took awhile with several miscues, and offering up things we’d never heard of. It did finally figure it out, but I don’t know if we’ll have to go through a whole series of phrases to get it to play again.
After doing the whole: Alexa, play… for a while, our 3 year old figured out what was going on. He’s starts shouting “Alexa, play…”. For some reason, Alexa doesn’t respond to his implorings. I don’t know if that’s a blessing or bad design. I’m sure there’s a way to train it to recognize his voice. I’ll wait and see if I want to give it that particular skill.
The echo system comes with things called ‘skills’. These are various phrases tied to various actions. There’s a whole marketplace of free skills. So, you can do something like “Alexa, tell Uber to order me a car”, or whatever the phraseology is. You ‘tell’ another skill to do something on your behalf, as if each skill was it’s own AI. Meh.
What I like about it is the ease with which you can quickly integrate this into your home life. We stuck it in the kitchen, which is central to our daily activities. I also purchased a couple of wifi controllable lights, so that we’d have those to play with. I have the intention of installing them in one of the rooms, perhaps downstairs, just so we can say things like “Alexa, set some action lighting in the play room”. That and some other home automation might be interesting.
Sitting around the kitchen, saying “Alexa” all the time is really annoying. I not a natural flow of conversation to say a thing’s name every time you want to address it. Try this at home, every time you want to say something to someone, say their name first, even if they’re standing right next to you and you’ve been talking to them for the past hour. It’s really annoying.
We yell at Alexa. Not quite knowing what volume is best, we shout “Alexa” all the time.
We want a different wake word. I don’t think this is possible, maybe you have a couple of choices. But, I’d much rather say “dufus” than alexa. And of course I’d like to get the cool Jarvis voice, or Majel Roddenberry, or a selection of voice actors to interact with.
So far, the major annoyance is the constant talking, and the inability to do simple things like ‘save this song to my favorites’. The latter doesn’t necessarily work unless you have Amazon Music, or whatever. Some cryptic message, and lack of instructions on what to do right away to save the song I’m listening to is just annoying. I just wanted to say “Alexa, I like this”, as the instructions said, but couldn’t quite make it happen.
Of course this is an Amazon product, so there is purchasing involved. It’s tied to my Amazon account, and I can order a $20 loaf of bread easily enough. I’m sure this particular feature (shopping) is well tuned, but I haven’t tried it out yet.
The other aspect that’s interesting is the license. I actually bothered to read it to see just what kind of shenanigans they were up to. Of course, saving your utterances is in the mix. Saving your orders, music choices, preferences, all of that stuff. And passing it along to the appropriate partners at the appropriate times is fully available to Amazon. What strikes me is how easily I’m willing to give away my personal space to a company. Not only am I dropping a bugging device into a central location in my home (besides the cell phone I carry with me at all times), I’m giving them the right to save everything I say and use it against me in targeted advertising. At least I turned off the notifications portion of the app, so hopefully Alexa won’t be whispering subliminal advertisement as I eat my morning cereal.
The other aspect is how easily I give up control of my home. I’m willing to let a cloud attached device sit on my home network (what an effective spy tool), and talk to my lights, security system, garage door, HVAC… I’m setup, even better than the nest, to get my home hacked from abroad with ease. I can imagine the scenario. Alexa knows when everyone’s out of the house for extended periods of time, either through observation, or because I’m actually using the calendar function. Alexa/Amazon knows everything I’ve purchased in the last year. Alexa controls the electronic locks on my doors as well as garage opener. The hacker sitting in a non-US expeditable jurisdiction hacks the echo dot, passes information along to a local actor, and opens up the doors at the appropriate time for my home to be swept clean.
This scenario will surely play out with the appropriate apologies from Amazon, or whomever first gets hacked in this scenario.
Why I’m not worried. Although I have a security system, I won’t be hooking it up to Alexa, or any other cloud attached thing that I don’t control. I won’t give Alexa access to the garage, and I prefer good old fashioned lock and key. But, this brings up another point, and kind of the crux of the state of personal computing.
Who’s data is it anyway?
In this modern cloud rage fueled economy, the likes of Google and Amazon have claimed our personal data for themselves and their own purposes.
The Echo Dot is simply the ultimate in personal data collection devices. Never before has a company (besides Nielsen) had a device in your home collecting so much, and possibly controlling it as well. This is where the personal computing thing breaks down right now. If it’s going to be personal, I think I need to be in control of the data. I can believe this whole voice activated thing needs to be cloud based for the moment, because you can leverage the collective phrases of the entire planet to figure out what’s being uttered, and what action to be taken. But, come one, give the hardware another couple of years and you’ve got to believe that the device itself will be strong enough to do that all on it’s own. I’ve got a few terabytes of storage, and more MIPS sitting idle that an entire data center of a small company. Surely I’ve got enough capability to figure out “dufus, play ‘what is love'”.
So, a single Echo Dot has made its way into our home. It performs about as well as I expected. The audio coming out of the device itself is actually better than I expected from the reviews. It’s not Jarvis level personal computing, but I can certainly see the makings.
Microsoft has a ton of voice recognition, and Cortana, and ‘skills’ bot stuff as well. Microsoft does not have a $40 piece of hardware to pull it all together. After looking at the drool worthy Surface Studio announcement a couple months back, I’m hopeful that my company can come up with a simple device to pull all our tech craft together and play in this space. It’s going to be huuugee, and I don’t want to miss it.
My data is my own, and the first company that fully embraces that perspective gets my money, and respect, big time!
During the mid 1980s through the 1990s, Apple was very interesting. Going through swings of almost bankruptcy, to launching the all new Macintosh, to losing their illustrious CEO, and the birth of NeXT Computers. During that time I was closely affiliated, either because I was selling a lot of those Macs, or because I was writing software on NeXT Computers. The one thread that ran through the era was Steve Jobs, and the always present news story. Steve had a way, and Apple has kind of gotten away from this a bit, of being in the news. Whether it was because of tantrums in the engineering org, or his stylistic choices in architecture, Steve, and thus his companies, were always in the news for good or bad. As such, Steve Jobs is a world renown name, and Apple is Apple.
Dare I say, the modern day Steve Jobs is Donald Trump. This is how a modern political campaign is won. He was always in the news, and everyone, especially his opponents, was always reacting to whatever he said or did. That’s just the way it is, and now he’s about to be in the White House.
As humans, we are often afflicted by a fascination of all things human, and sometimes that leads us to believe we are all important, powerful, or penultimate if not on this planet alone, then in the entirety of the universe. Then things start to happen that are far beyond our control. Mt Pinatubo erupts, and suddenly atomic bombs look smallish.
While I was running on the treadmill this morning, I was watching some video “Earth in 1000 Years”. It’s basically a 45 minute expose on what’s happening with the polar ice caps and iceland. I found it to be just factual. Satellite photos, x-rays, ice core samples, and the like. Explanations of what ocean currents are doing, what happens with tons of fresh water sliding into the oceans, how carbon is trapped and released, and how it all correlates to climate change, ice ages, thaws, and the like. Nothing political, no exhortations to drive an electric car, no brow beating about how environmental accords need to be agreed to. Just cold hard facts of what’s happening to our planet today, and what it will likely mean over the next couple hundred years.
Then, I read this story about how Miami Beach is losing its sand. Once again, this is a cold hard fact. The people who live their and manage the beaches know full well what’s going on, and the risk associated with a sea that is rising by .24″ per year. It’s not the actual rise that’s killer at the moment, but that the surge is upward, so the sand is getting washed away.
And this got me thinking on the Trump connection. There are any number of stories on Donald Trump’s beliefs when it comes to climate change, like this one. Basically “ah phooey, that stuff is a bunch of bunk…”. Yep, heard it before. Perhaps the only debatable point is the level to which human activities have any affect on the climate, but changing it is. But, here’s Donald Trump, in the media, saying anything to stay in the minds of the masses. It doesn’t really matter what he say. Facts, half-truth, made up reality. As long as he says it, and people are listening, it will get spread, and we’ll all react.
I understand why people say “there’s no climate change”. Because, invariably, they think the restrictions we impose on ourselves to deal with it are taking jobs away, suppressing profits, and generally just a bunch of governmental overreach. Yah, ok, I can understand the sentiment.
So, at least for the next 4 years, the US govt. might not be a world player when it comes to driving climate change initiatives. But what does that mean to me the average schmoe. Do I have to return all my newly installed LED lights and reinstall wasteful incandescent bulbs? Do I have to purchase an American made muscle car that gets 15 mpg instead of an electric? Do I have to invest in coal mines to ensure that my electricity comes from the good old fashioned “when America was great” method of electical generation, or can I go ahead and install those solar panels and battery pack at my house?
At some point, we all think, “this is a big problem, what difference does it make what I do?”, but these problems are all actually locally modifiable. If everyone on the planet could ditch their incandescent bulbs in favor of LEDs, at the very least we’d be using that much less power, which leaves more for other uses. If companies like Tesla make great looking cars at affordable prices, then we can buy them, and reduce by that much. These are tiny things, but they do in fact add up.
Politicians are so important when it comes to setting an agenda, and driving in a particular direction. We as individuals and societies outlast them, and operate on a personal level every day. No matter what is said in the media about climate change, I’m going to continue to purchase LED lighting, because it’s a fairly economical thing to do, and it just makes sense. I’m desperate to make my next car an electric one. I’m going to ride my bike to work more, when it’s not quite so rainy and dark. I’m going to try and support companies that are like minded and creating products that are friendly to the environment, not because they were forced to by government regulations, but because it seems like a good idea to take care of the place we call home.
Donald Trump is in the news a lot, for all sorts of things. He’s a media hound, and thrives off the attention, and ultimately it will suit his needs, whatever they may be. He is no oracle when it comes to understanding climate change. He’s just another human. I’m not going to get trumped by his view on climate, and I’m going to do the best that I can as a human to try and make our planet a better place.
Every few months or so, I get this thing in the mail that shows me a comparison between our home’s energy consumption vs our nearest 100 neighbors. Every time I get this thing, I see that we’re at 75% or more. Meaning, we use 75% more energy than our closest 100 neighbors. I look around the neighborhood and I think “really? I’m sure we don’t use that much more energy than THOSE people over there…”. There is a distinction though. It shows us using a lot more electricity, but about the same or less in natural gas.
Well, being as home competitive as I am, I thought to do an inventory and try to improve things where I can. As far as electric goes, our house is mostly electric, with the exception being the gas stove top. Our water heater is one of those “instant on” kind, which is actually constantly heating a much smaller reservoir than a typical home heater, and gives us a continuous stream of hot water, even with two simultaneous showerers (which is rare anyway). The home heater is one of those heat pump things. That’s basically an air conditioner running in reverse. It does have gas fired heater as well, but that doesn’t kick in unless the temperature outside is below 40 degrees, which only happens in the dead of winter.
We did have one of those instant hot water things installed under a sink in the kitchen. That thing is probably a huge consumer of electricity because not only is it constantly heating water, but it’s constantly keeping it near boiling so you can have hot tea at the twist of a knob.
Then there’s all the lights in the house. This is a modern house built in 2008. The sheer number of lights is daunting. In my office where I’m typing this right now, there are 4 recessed lights in the ceiling, each one an incandescent flood light of 60 – 75w. That’s a lot of wattage to light a single room. There are 4 other rooms on this level that are similarly configured. Then there’s the kitchen with 9 of the same! So, if this floor is fully lit, that’s got to be enough electricity to run a small city!
Our local utility is running a special lighting rebate right now. The replacement lights for those floods cost roughly $5 apiece. That’s quite a savings, and you get LED lighting, which should last for 20 years, and cost roughly $1.30 to run for a year. Well, I’m all green about that, so I went out and got a bunch of Sylvania Ultra High Output LED flood lights (BR30).
Some of the lights in our house are way far up there, and probably will never be replaced, but I did replace all the ones that were readily at hand. Downstairs, first level, upstairs, it must have been about 40 lights in total. I also did external balcony, and outside garage. Knowing the wattage and yearly cost of the lights replaced, I’ve got to think this is going to make some sort of difference. The lights have what’s known as an “Edison” base, which just means they have that regular sized screw in type of base. Luckily all these floods were also Edison base, rather than something more exotic.
Next came the entrance to the house. Currently 3 60 watt bulbs, Edison base. These stay on all evening, activated by an external light sensor. The originals were not flood lights, so not a ton of energy to begin with. I replaced them last year with low energy CFLs. Since I’m going all in with LED lighting though, I’m going to replace those with Sylvania Ultra LED 75w bulbs. the package says 1100 lumens, 22+ years of life, and $1.14 per year to operate. that’s all good right?
Then come the bathrooms. Each bathroom has at least 3 lights at the vanity mirror. These are not Edison base, but rather a GU24 base.
This base has two pins, which you give a half turn to in order to secure in the socket. Apparently this connector is all the rage, as it allows a much shorter socket compared to the Edison twist connector. Problem is, the lights with this base are not as common, so choices are more limited. I’m putting A19 sized bulbs rated at 60w, at 2700K (supposedly soft white).
I bought 3 of them at the local Bulbs + Batteries (Duracell ultra, 800 lumens), just to try them out. They seem to work, so I’m ordering some more through Amazon.
The last kind of light that I have is in the bathroom as well. These are tiny halogen flood lights for walls in nooks. They are also pin type, but not the same size as the GU24 base. These are smaller. I haven’t found any LED bulbs for that as yet, but I’m sure I will.
I replaced the garage bulbs last year, so that’s all set.
The bedrooms are a different story. Each room has this dome like fixture, and I finally got around to taking a dome off to see what was needed to replace the light. Well, it’s a hard wired fluorescent bulb! I’ve never seen a hard wired bulb in any home I’ve ever lived in. So, this is rather strange. I’ll have to shut off the electrical, unwire that thing, put in a twist or GU24 socket, and go on from there. Surely that won’t happen for quite some time, but since our bedroom lights aren’t on that much, I’m not too concerned with the energy reduction just yet.
Overall, I’m quite happy with our step into the modern era with respect to our lighting. It’s quite expensive to replace all the lights in our house. So, it’s not just a matter of cost savings. Each bulb will pay for itself over the course of our ownership of the house. Reducing our overall energy consumption is a bigger deal. Of course, I’m counter balancing with the usage of a massive computer, 3D printers, and CNC router, but those are all occasional usage. I’ll ride my bicycle more in order to compensate my carbon foot print.
It’s been a fun adventure. All the different kinds of lights, the balancing act on the stairs with the ladder, and generally contemplating lighting color temperature and the like has been quite an education. We’ll see if we get our energy usage down around our neighbors with these changes. Of course, they’re all doing the same, so it’s kind of a race to a coleman lamp fueled bottom. We’ll see.
I saw this notification in an email: Fri 11/18 Crane in parking lot 11/19-11/20 Building Closed
Now, it might be a sign of the times, or where I live, or my general gullability or stupidity or both, but this what my first thought: Oh, there must be some rare bird which landed in front of that building, and they’re shutting down the building for a few days so it doesn’t get hurt. I had visions of a rare bird, perhaps with a broken wing, maybe a whole family of cranes…
Then I thought, oh, wait, they’re talking about a construction crane, not a bird…
Just goes to show you the breadth and depth of knowledge, the openness, the empathy, that I as a programmer must possess…
Or, I’m just going senile.
On this day, the interwebs brought me an interesting story. There is this song from the C&C music factory: Things that make you go hmmm. This story is one of those things that make you go hmmm. You can look up the names “Pamela Ramsey Taylor” and “Beverly Whaling”, and get the general idea of what this story is about.
It’s basically about a woman freely expressing her relief that there will be a first lady in the White House who is more suitable to her sensibilities. She uses very interesting wording, which may lead you to believe she’s some racist, or at the very least kind of clueless. She gives apology, and the common refrain of “ask my friends, I’m not a racist!”.
Not wanting to get into all that name labeling, I just thoughts I’d drop a few words here to remind myself what really beautiful classy strong women look like. So, here’s my short list of beautiful, strong, classy women who I would not have minded seeing in the White House over the past couple of hundred years.
- Sally Hemmings
- Harriet Tubman
- Josephine Baker
- Wilma Rudolph
- Rosa Parks
- Marie Daly
- Diana Ross
- Maya Angelou
- Florence Griffith Joyner
- Condolleeza Rice
- Serena Williams
- Michelle Obama
A slave lover to a president, a slave emancipator, entertainers, sports figures, scientists, poetic and prophetic thinkers, and world tinkerers, beauties, and sports beasts. They’re all there and tons more like them exist. They might be ‘apes’ if by that we really mean “primate”, meaning “prime, of the first order”. These ladies are all of the first order, top of the top, and any one of them could be fit to be in the White House.
I don’t think it’s helpful to shame such people that make what feel like politically incorrect statements. It just drives them underground, and in private, with their like minded friends, their echo chamber commentary will self reinforce, and erupt later forms more destructive and extreme. Rather, I would like to meet such commentary with open arms and say “what really bothered you about that? I want to understand…”
But alas, this is the day of Twitter, and; squirrel…. distraction. This story will pass, the echo chamber will exist, and everyone will run along to their next distraction.
In the meanwhile, I’m going to continue to think about which guy will look good as a first husband, when we finally get around to electing a woman to the White House.
Well, it’s finally done
I began this journey with creating the excuses for doing the build in the first place, and then purchasing the various parts.
Now here is the fully assembled thing. Some final thoughts. The scariest part was doing the water cooling piping. I practiced tube bending on a waste piece before embarking on the final pieces. Like a plumber, it’s helpful to plan out where the pipes are going, do some measurements, then do bending on cutting. Really I was afraid that once it got assembled, it would be springing leaks all over the place ruining the fairly expensive electronics. When I first put the tubing together, I tested by running some distilled water through the system to flush things out.
In the end, there were no leaks, and everything runs beautifully, and cool. Having done this once now, I can see redoing the tubing at some point to make it more fancy, but for now, it works just fine, and looks cool.
One thing of note, this thing is really quiet. You literally need to almost stick your ear into the various fans to hear them at all. The power supply fan is dead quiet. This is dramatically different than the power supply on my shuttle PC, which I thought was fairly quiet. Now the Shuttle PC sounds like a jet engine in comparison.
The fans on the cooling radiator are whisper quiet as well, and provide those cool lighting effects to boot. Really this thing shows off best in a fairly dark room where the various glowing light effects can be seen.
The noisiest part of the entire build is actually the disk drive. You wouldn’t normally think of that, but when things are absolutely silent, to the point where the AC fan in a room is way louder, in a quiet room, the steady rumble of the disk drive is the most notable sound.
I’m loving it so far. I feel a sense of accomplishment in putting it together. I got to use it as a visual aid for the latest cohort of the LEAP class. Having a transparent case makes it easy to point at stuff, and the liquid cooling just adds a nice wow factor.
As far as the OS is concerned, I installed Windows 10 Pro. I figure even if I want to run Linux, I can simply use Hyper-V to create Linux VMs and go that way. Given that the graphics card can run 4 monitors at a time (I think), that’s more than enough to give me the illusion of a common desktop, with two Windows screens, and a third with Linux on a VM. So, it’s a sweet combo.
As for the excuse to be able to run the Vulkan API on a modern graphics board, that’s coming along. I had to install Visual Studio, build a LuaJIT, and dust off the cobwebs of my Vulkan ffi binding. All in due time. For now, the screaming machine is being used to type this blog post, and otherwise sitting beside my desk looking cool. I’ll have to design a desk specifically for it just to add to the DIY nature of the thing.
I definitely want to post this note to myself, in time capsule form, so I can look back in 4 or 8 years and see what I thought was about to happen.
More importantly than the election itself, there was a game between the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks the previous monday night (Nov 7, 2016). There were plenty of iffy calls as usual, and one exciting one in particular at the end of the first half. This call involved Richard Sherman disrupting a field goal attempt. In the process of trying to block the kick, he’s clearly off sides, and ultimate touches the ball and bumps into the kicker. At full speed, the outcome seems obvious, and the Bills of course are looking for a roughing the kicker call, which never comes. Perplexed, the chorus of “cheater”, “dirty player”, “stupid refs” goes up in the twitter verse. The kicker’s wife tweets something dumb, twitter verse errupts with “racism” calls, and things are just out of control.
In hindsight, and review by calmer heads, it turns out that the rules are such that if the refs don’t blow a whistle, then what Richard Sherman did is perfectly legal, even if appearing abhorant. But, the headlines are all “Richard Sherman, dirty player, roughing the kicker non-call, the Bills could have been closer and possibly won the game in the 4th quarter”. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Next day, roll forward to the US election. Trump has been on a tare for months, saying all manner of rough and unpleasant things. We’re all in shock and the revelations coming forward almost daily. Democrates are salivating, not believing their luck in running against such a poor candidate. Could not dream of a more unfit person to run against. And yet, Hillary Clinton can’t quite seem to rise above him very far in the poles. Certainly not the landslide inducing lead you would expect to have against such a poor candidate. The only problem is, as poor as Trump was, Clinton appeared to be an even poorer choice.
History books will be full of analysis of why Clinton lost. For me, it was a fairly simple formula. She simply did not motivate the electorate to vote for her. In an election where populist sentiment was on display, the constant non-stop country crossing of Trump, the constant Trump in the media, was just too much for the calm cerebral policy wonk speech making of the Clinton candidacy. Just like the non-call in the Seahawks game. The Trump supporters were like the instant tweeted response calling for dramatic change immediately. The Clinton campaign was like the non-call, they were perhaps right, but they didn’t capture the emotion of the moment. In the election, the emotion of the moment won out, and Trump was elected, while the cool calm and collected stayed home, or voted for someone else in protest.
Whither now? My brother and I though Trump would win over the summer because of the way he captured the Republican party. Just a simple recognition that he came out of the blue, and ran a campaign that the established political systems had no idea how to deal with. They followed their traditional formulas, whereas Trump followed his reality TV success formula. So, what happens next?
Counter to what the non-trump supporters might believe, this guy is pretty smart, regardless of all the commentary. He is astute enough to know how to rile a crowd and get popular support. In his first hundred days, or so, I’d expect he will do lightning strikes with executive orders. He will try to reverse as much Obama driven stuff as possible. This will play to his base. In particular, he’ll go after stuff that has no real consequence, but plays well to the cheering masses. Certainly anything related to immigration, perhaps go after a few key flag burning cases, put some investment into border security. Roll back various rules and regulations where he can, so show that he’s getting government out of our hair. Rudy Giuliani will become that supreme court nominee. He could be secretary of state, but I think he would rather stay at home, and get his hands into shaping generations to come from the calm comforts of the bench.
Then, he’ll settle down and have to deal with things like the middle east, a resurgent Russia, and a China which will certainly probe and push hard.
On immigration, I’d expect that he’ll pretty much do what Obama has been doing, which is exporting as many un-documented people as is feasible. Obama has already been doing that in record numbers, so ultimately, Trump will just continue, but will make a better show of it, actually being at the border as the buses roll up and showing the ‘adios’ as people are shown the way home.
Foreign policy, he’ll become buddy buddy with Putin. Putin will say “Look Donald, can I call you Donald? You don’t really care about Ukraine do you? How about you look the other way while I just sort of annex the whole thing, and I’ll pull out of Seria?” Trump will think, ‘yah, that sounds good, there’s no oil in the Ukraine that I care about, and I could get a win for bringing peace to the middle east, sounds like a good deal’, and that will be that.
The Phillipines might be interesting. He’ll support strong man Duterte, and say “Look here, my daughter runs my businesses you know, I have nothing to do with those right now. I hear she wants to build a beautiful resort in the phillipines, I don’t know. I don’t know who the shareholders would be, but they’ll probably make a lot of money you know. Probably well connected people in the Phillipines, I don’t know. I do know I need to keep bases open there though. What do you say friend?”
Looking at Nafta, ripped up and re-negotiated? Hmmm, we’ll see on that one. Mexico, US, Canada are a fairly strong trading block. The US leverages Mexican workers on this side of the border to keep our various goods and services inexpensive. We leverage workers and factories on the other side of the border for the same reason. Large US businesses already benefit from things staying the way they are. This is a play for the smaller companies in the US who are not competing on the global scale. They need more protections from foreign competition (primarily Chinese goods dumping), but realistically, they simply don’t have the products at a competitive price to compete. Short of reducing our wages to the levels seen in those foreign countries, we’re in a tough spot. We could see some token gestures, but ultimately it comes down to having a competitive workforce in a global economy. We need to go upscale, providing services that low wages won’t get. And that’s the crux of a generational transformation for the American workforce.
I doubt nafta will be ‘torn up’. The Transpacific one though, that might stall, at least until it gets negotiated in a way that will favor a post white house Trump more favorably that it might currently.
Jobs creation? Bringing those American companies back home? That’s also a toughy. Those ostensibly “American” companies are international conglomerates. Not likely to ‘repatriate’ the hundreds of billions of dollars they hold in various other countries, just to be taxed. They’re very good at keeping that money moving, and out of the hands of tax hungry countries. Trump knows the tax codes, and could maneuver, but again, post white house trump likely loves things to stay the way they are.
And on and on it goes. I expect there to be a lot more attention on the white house. I expect Trump to be very popular initially. I expect him to put on a good enough show, and there to not be any viable candidates to oppose him, over the next 4 years. I expect him to get reelected. I also expect him to feel the weight of the office. I expect the flourish he shows in the first year or two to diminish somewhat by the end of his first term. I expect the world to continue to be a dangerous angry place as world power is rapidly shifting. I expect the disillusioned to wake up after the end of it all and realize they’re no better off than when Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Bush were in office.
This is a generational inflection point. This is what change looks like. It’s going to be a fantastic and scary ride, and we’ll end up on a different place, on a slightly different path than we’ve been on lately.
And what else? SpaceX, Tesla, Musk will continue to be in the news. Azure will continue to grow, water will continue to be an issue in the middle east, the temperature will continue to rise, diapers will continue to need changing. I will continue to type out musings.
So, I’m not an Elon Musk acolyte. I don’t own a Tesla, solar energy where I live isn’t particularly viable, and I don’t have any micro satellites to launch into orbit. I feel compelled to put down my thoughts on this guy simply because I want to look back in a few years and see how my various observations panned out.
First of all, Elon Musk is human. He’s fallable, and probably eccentric in his own way. I’m sure there are people who love working for him, and people who hate it. One thing is for sure, he is one of the shapers of our future modern world. I’ll begin at my beginning.
I never heard of Elon Musk until the whole Tesla thing started. At first he seemed to merely be a deep pocket investor, but later became the driving force of a company that probably would have gone the Fisker rout, cool tech, but not a viable business.
Then this whole economy ‘incident’ occured, and there was quite a cloud over innovation there for a while. Tesla survived (with some government help), and what’s this? There’s this whole other SpaceX thing which has also been brewing. Huh. I’m not really up on the history of SpaceX, but it appears like something cooked up by Elon Musk directly, rather than something he just so happened to invest in. And besides that, there’s this solar city thing that was also brewing on the side, just biding it’s time through the recession. And wait, there’s this giant factory that’s going to produce batteries, and then there’s Hyperloop. This last one is the one that pushed me over edge in wanting to write down my thoughts on things Musk.
So, these are a bunch of wild things, each of which is giant enough to drive someone’s lifetime ambitions, but Elon Musk is into all of them. I’m going to tray and channel him for a moment.
Elon Musk is a grown up who as a child had visions of going to Mars and setting up a colony. He’s smart enough to have realized that going to Mars to live isn’t merely a matter of getting there, which we can probably already do. If you really want to live there, you have to consider several things. With any city, there’s certainly the softer sides of governance, and societal management. Then there’s the more worrisome stuff like transportation, energy, food, shelter, water, etc. Of you consider these latter pieces, you can begin to see the skeleton of a Mars colony in everything that he’s doing today.
SpaceX is about rocketry. So yah, you have to work on that. If you want to transfer people in colony sized amounts, it has to be cheap enough to achieve. Up until SpaceX, the costs in rocketry were a bit high, largely driven by government sized entities. SpaceX is still largely government sponsored, but they are bringing costs down through various innovations. Of course China and India are doing much to reduce costs of space travel as well, but this is where the Boy Musk gets his excitement.
Then there’s Tesla. It’s marginally about transportation, but it’s hugely about batteries and energy systems. If you’re on Mars, you’re not likely to be burning fossil fuels (can’t find there, and can’t transport). Solar energy is going to be your best bet. Thus, Solar City makes a heck of a lot of sense. You’ll need to develop solar panels and techniques of all sorts. I wouldn’t be surprised if wind and some sort of thermic thing doesn’t work its way into the mix over time. Then there’s the mega battery factory. Oh yah sure, you can consume all those batteries in cars if you like, but really you’re creating battery systems to power houses, modules, factories, whatever. Now, batteries aren’t the best storage for all things. Compressed gas, or even liquids being pumped up hill might be good storage, but as far as mobile, and fairly isolated uses are concerned, traditional batteries are a good place to start. And now, they’ve recently announced battery packs for houses, mated with solar panels of their own design, and Solar City merges with Tesla. That’s the whole energy side of things. I’d expect this ‘car’ company to come out with more dramatic things on the energy front.
Isn’t the car company about transportation? Yes, marginally I think. Hyperloop is more about transportation when it comes to Mars. And this one really was the “aha” moment for me. The various comments I’ve read about the feasibility of the systems really harp on things like ‘too hard to pull a vacuum to be practical’. When you think of it from the perspective of Mars though, do the same things apply? First of all, purchasing right of way. I don’t know about the land grant rules related to Mars, but I’ve got to imagine that through the UN you can get a fairly large portion of Mars all to yourself. Lay out track in tubes, either above ground, or under, and you at least don’t have right of way problems. Creating a good enough vacuum on Mars is probably not as hard as doing it on earth, and with less gravity, moving trains requires that much less energy as well. Given the usage of mobile battery packs (solar charged) even the energy requirements are fairly minimal. The whole thing is solar powered.
So, for some runs, the Mars transportation system can rely on Hyperloop style conveyance. Perhaps it’s only used to ship the various mining materials from the fields to the processing plants? The humans can drive around in slower golf carts on short runs.
That’s the crux of how I see things unfolding for the Musketeers. Think of everything in the context of a Mars colony. That will drive habitation, transportation, energization, and all sorts of other ations. In the coming years, I would expect One Musk entity or another to get more into food growth, construction, and even create an amusement part somewhere inhospitable, like the ocean floor, or the middle of the desert, in order to explore and develop concepts related to life on Mars.
That’s my view on this modern day rocket man. At the very least, he’s inspiring a generation of thinkers and tinkers to go after this modern day moon shot. No doubt a lot will come of it, if we don’t drown or explore ourselves first.
Full Disclosure, as usual: I am currently employed by Microsoft, and have been for the past 18 years.
I came across the announcement for the Surface Studio today. This reminded me of a talk Steve Ballmer gave to several groups across the company back in the day. The question from the audience was “what do you see coming in the future…”. At that time, he said a lot more voice, eye tracking, bigger screens, just more and different forms of input and interaction. Say what you will about Steve Ballmer, but we did have a vision of how the client side consumer devices might unfold. Of course, we did kind of miff the early phases of the mobile computing thing, and had a few missteps on the tablet band wagon, but here we are.
I have never used the Surface Studio, but it looks very interesting to me. My toddler children ( 1 and 3) are growing up in a world of touch screens, tablets, and content delivery and interaction devices from 2.5″ to 45″. This is their world. I’d love to buy one of those Surface Studio devices if for no other reason than to put it in their play room so they could pull up various games and video content. I could cobble together the same using a Dell all in one, but this one looks really cool.
There’s something else going on here though. Often times I’m a consumer like anyone else. I have several products from the fruit company (not their phone) and I like them. I don’t allow my house to go fully into their walled garden though, because I’m just contrarian, so, we have plenty of MS, Linux, Android as well. Different devices for different functions. What’s going on though is a revival in my way of thinking.
If I read too much of the stuff on Hacker News and the like, I begin to believe the Windows client is irrelevant. To some extent that is true. The apps that I use are far more important than the OS that’s running them. These days, it’s Plex, or Kodi, or whatever is running Netflix. Typically just a web browser on a decent media machine is required. Same goes for email, and web browsing, and even dev code editing. The underlying OS simply doesn’t matter. But, now there are new devices with new capabilities.
It’s not that MS Windows is what I desire, it’s that I desire to run that Surface Studio “App” if you will, and it so happens to be run using Windows. Same goes for HoloLens. I don’t really care if HoloLens is running atop Linux or FreeRTOS, but it so happens to be running on Windows. Windows running on a Raspberry Pi isn’t quite as exciting, but these other ones are. If I want to do VR, I’m sure to get my hands into Windows, because that’s the OS that has the most VR stuff going on. If I want to get into the creatives, and I’m not locked into Apple, then Windows again, driven by things like this Surface Studio.
It’s a strange feeling. I like bashing Windows as much as the next guy, largely because as a share holder, I want it to get better. The company seems to be showing some nice innovations in form factors, and pushing the envelope in terms of new forms of interaction and consumption. This is enough for me to hold on to my nokia windows phone just a little bit longer in anticipation of the exciting next new thing from Microsoft.
I know, strange, isn’t it?
I’ve been scratching my head quite a bit (perhaps due to hair loss) trying to figure out what’s going on with American politics. Then, last night, it finally occurred to me.
Whomever is scripting the thing is a fan of Jim Carrey movies!
I mean, here are the titles of some of the movies which I think apply the most to what I’ve seen over the past few months.
- Dumb and Dumber
- Liar Liar
- Yes Man
- The Mask
- Kick Ass
- The Truman Show
Dumb and Dumber (1994) is exceptional because it even has a sequel “Dumb and Dumber To”. That one really gets me because the first movie was such an amazingly unbelievable premise, that I just kind of stared at the screen dumb founded at what I was watching, but unable to pull myself away. Then, it was followed up 20 years later by the same shenanigans. So far I’ve managed to resist and not watch the sequel. It was amazing to see that it was made, and every time I saw the trailer I thought, ‘What? Did these guys have children who are reprising the roles of their parents?”, but no, it was the same guys again.
Liar Liar… Well, they are aspiring politicians. Only, in the Jim Carrey movie, the protagonist always has a heart of gold, love wins out, and everything is alright. But really, doesn’t it even bother people how much absolute falsehoods are thrown about during these elections. I don’t mean the typical bending of the truth, I mean absolute fabrications and denials of ‘facts’. In this age of Twitter, WikiLeaks, and cells phones on every corner, it’s becoming harder and harder to hide from the manufactured truth.
Yes Man. There’s nothing extraordinary about Yes Man in terms of the movie, other than the title. I mean isn’t it obvious. The candidates are surrounded by apologists, supporters, and frankly “Yes Men”. That’s how they’re goaded on and enabled in whatever actions they take. There’s always someone standing by ready to support their actions with a hearty heart felt “Yes sir/mam! You’re absolutely right!”. Although, the opposite also seems true in the current election cycle as one candidate has had a stream of supporters abandon his missteps while his most fervent supporters are still saying “Yes!”. It’s kind of like when the Sith lord is telling Luke Skywalker (in a slow slithery voice) “yeesssss….. Feel the power of the dark side coursing through you…”
The Mask – Well, this one is too obvious, just like Yes Man. Who are we really? We all are trying to hide something. The power of the mask is to amplify who we really are. In most recent weeks, due to the amplification power of modern media, and digital archives, we’ve been able to see who our candidates really are. One of them turns out to be this horn dog monster of a character who thinks “there’s always time for one last kiss!”. The other’s true self is almost overwhelmed by access to power, but really means well.
Kick Ass 2 – I’ve never seen this one, but the synopsis seems to be in keeping with our troubled politicians. Basically someone is trying to do good, but the nasty villain keeps rearing their ugly head at inopportune times. In this case, the villain might be in the form of foreign powers. Just as we are trying to reap the rewards of the end of the cold war, they just keep showing up to ruin our basking in the flow of our own importance.
The Truman Show – This one, more than any of the others, really does put things in perspective. In 1998, this movie was about a guy who grows up in a false reality. This movie predates survivor by 2 years, and “The Apprentice” by 10, so I’ll call it the first true reality show. It’s the ultimate in voyeurism. A guy who grows up, owned by a corporation, and knows no truths other than those that are within his little bubble of existence. The whole world is in on the joke, except Truman himself. This has so many parallels to where we are and where we’re headed. I have no doubt there will be a reality show about getting to the presidency. All emails, all contacts, all meetings, will be recorded and broadcast as we follow our “candidates” as they race towards their date with destiny, and the chance to serve the American people. The ultimate politician will simply be an entertainer. The governing part of politics will be executed by various “producers”, and a “staff”, which rotates through the show.
I get it. Good joke!
All that remains for election 2016 is to see if the finishing plot is more in lines with “Bruce Almighty” or “The Grinch”.