During the mid 1980s through the 1990s, Apple was very interesting. Going through swings of almost bankruptcy, to launching the all new Macintosh, to losing their illustrious CEO, and the birth of NeXT Computers. During that time I was closely affiliated, either because I was selling a lot of those Macs, or because I was writing software on NeXT Computers. The one thread that ran through the era was Steve Jobs, and the always present news story. Steve had a way, and Apple has kind of gotten away from this a bit, of being in the news. Whether it was because of tantrums in the engineering org, or his stylistic choices in architecture, Steve, and thus his companies, were always in the news for good or bad. As such, Steve Jobs is a world renown name, and Apple is Apple.
Dare I say, the modern day Steve Jobs is Donald Trump. This is how a modern political campaign is won. He was always in the news, and everyone, especially his opponents, was always reacting to whatever he said or did. That’s just the way it is, and now he’s about to be in the White House.
As humans, we are often afflicted by a fascination of all things human, and sometimes that leads us to believe we are all important, powerful, or penultimate if not on this planet alone, then in the entirety of the universe. Then things start to happen that are far beyond our control. Mt Pinatubo erupts, and suddenly atomic bombs look smallish.
While I was running on the treadmill this morning, I was watching some video “Earth in 1000 Years”. It’s basically a 45 minute expose on what’s happening with the polar ice caps and iceland. I found it to be just factual. Satellite photos, x-rays, ice core samples, and the like. Explanations of what ocean currents are doing, what happens with tons of fresh water sliding into the oceans, how carbon is trapped and released, and how it all correlates to climate change, ice ages, thaws, and the like. Nothing political, no exhortations to drive an electric car, no brow beating about how environmental accords need to be agreed to. Just cold hard facts of what’s happening to our planet today, and what it will likely mean over the next couple hundred years.
Then, I read this story about how Miami Beach is losing its sand. Once again, this is a cold hard fact. The people who live their and manage the beaches know full well what’s going on, and the risk associated with a sea that is rising by .24″ per year. It’s not the actual rise that’s killer at the moment, but that the surge is upward, so the sand is getting washed away.
And this got me thinking on the Trump connection. There are any number of stories on Donald Trump’s beliefs when it comes to climate change, like this one. Basically “ah phooey, that stuff is a bunch of bunk…”. Yep, heard it before. Perhaps the only debatable point is the level to which human activities have any affect on the climate, but changing it is. But, here’s Donald Trump, in the media, saying anything to stay in the minds of the masses. It doesn’t really matter what he say. Facts, half-truth, made up reality. As long as he says it, and people are listening, it will get spread, and we’ll all react.
I understand why people say “there’s no climate change”. Because, invariably, they think the restrictions we impose on ourselves to deal with it are taking jobs away, suppressing profits, and generally just a bunch of governmental overreach. Yah, ok, I can understand the sentiment.
So, at least for the next 4 years, the US govt. might not be a world player when it comes to driving climate change initiatives. But what does that mean to me the average schmoe. Do I have to return all my newly installed LED lights and reinstall wasteful incandescent bulbs? Do I have to purchase an American made muscle car that gets 15 mpg instead of an electric? Do I have to invest in coal mines to ensure that my electricity comes from the good old fashioned “when America was great” method of electical generation, or can I go ahead and install those solar panels and battery pack at my house?
At some point, we all think, “this is a big problem, what difference does it make what I do?”, but these problems are all actually locally modifiable. If everyone on the planet could ditch their incandescent bulbs in favor of LEDs, at the very least we’d be using that much less power, which leaves more for other uses. If companies like Tesla make great looking cars at affordable prices, then we can buy them, and reduce by that much. These are tiny things, but they do in fact add up.
Politicians are so important when it comes to setting an agenda, and driving in a particular direction. We as individuals and societies outlast them, and operate on a personal level every day. No matter what is said in the media about climate change, I’m going to continue to purchase LED lighting, because it’s a fairly economical thing to do, and it just makes sense. I’m desperate to make my next car an electric one. I’m going to ride my bike to work more, when it’s not quite so rainy and dark. I’m going to try and support companies that are like minded and creating products that are friendly to the environment, not because they were forced to by government regulations, but because it seems like a good idea to take care of the place we call home.
Donald Trump is in the news a lot, for all sorts of things. He’s a media hound, and thrives off the attention, and ultimately it will suit his needs, whatever they may be. He is no oracle when it comes to understanding climate change. He’s just another human. I’m not going to get trumped by his view on climate, and I’m going to do the best that I can as a human to try and make our planet a better place.
Every few months or so, I get this thing in the mail that shows me a comparison between our home’s energy consumption vs our nearest 100 neighbors. Every time I get this thing, I see that we’re at 75% or more. Meaning, we use 75% more energy than our closest 100 neighbors. I look around the neighborhood and I think “really? I’m sure we don’t use that much more energy than THOSE people over there…”. There is a distinction though. It shows us using a lot more electricity, but about the same or less in natural gas.
Well, being as home competitive as I am, I thought to do an inventory and try to improve things where I can. As far as electric goes, our house is mostly electric, with the exception being the gas stove top. Our water heater is one of those “instant on” kind, which is actually constantly heating a much smaller reservoir than a typical home heater, and gives us a continuous stream of hot water, even with two simultaneous showerers (which is rare anyway). The home heater is one of those heat pump things. That’s basically an air conditioner running in reverse. It does have gas fired heater as well, but that doesn’t kick in unless the temperature outside is below 40 degrees, which only happens in the dead of winter.
We did have one of those instant hot water things installed under a sink in the kitchen. That thing is probably a huge consumer of electricity because not only is it constantly heating water, but it’s constantly keeping it near boiling so you can have hot tea at the twist of a knob.
Then there’s all the lights in the house. This is a modern house built in 2008. The sheer number of lights is daunting. In my office where I’m typing this right now, there are 4 recessed lights in the ceiling, each one an incandescent flood light of 60 – 75w. That’s a lot of wattage to light a single room. There are 4 other rooms on this level that are similarly configured. Then there’s the kitchen with 9 of the same! So, if this floor is fully lit, that’s got to be enough electricity to run a small city!
Our local utility is running a special lighting rebate right now. The replacement lights for those floods cost roughly $5 apiece. That’s quite a savings, and you get LED lighting, which should last for 20 years, and cost roughly $1.30 to run for a year. Well, I’m all green about that, so I went out and got a bunch of Sylvania Ultra High Output LED flood lights (BR30).
Some of the lights in our house are way far up there, and probably will never be replaced, but I did replace all the ones that were readily at hand. Downstairs, first level, upstairs, it must have been about 40 lights in total. I also did external balcony, and outside garage. Knowing the wattage and yearly cost of the lights replaced, I’ve got to think this is going to make some sort of difference. The lights have what’s known as an “Edison” base, which just means they have that regular sized screw in type of base. Luckily all these floods were also Edison base, rather than something more exotic.
Next came the entrance to the house. Currently 3 60 watt bulbs, Edison base. These stay on all evening, activated by an external light sensor. The originals were not flood lights, so not a ton of energy to begin with. I replaced them last year with low energy CFLs. Since I’m going all in with LED lighting though, I’m going to replace those with Sylvania Ultra LED 75w bulbs. the package says 1100 lumens, 22+ years of life, and $1.14 per year to operate. that’s all good right?
Then come the bathrooms. Each bathroom has at least 3 lights at the vanity mirror. These are not Edison base, but rather a GU24 base.
This base has two pins, which you give a half turn to in order to secure in the socket. Apparently this connector is all the rage, as it allows a much shorter socket compared to the Edison twist connector. Problem is, the lights with this base are not as common, so choices are more limited. I’m putting A19 sized bulbs rated at 60w, at 2700K (supposedly soft white).
I bought 3 of them at the local Bulbs + Batteries (Duracell ultra, 800 lumens), just to try them out. They seem to work, so I’m ordering some more through Amazon.
The last kind of light that I have is in the bathroom as well. These are tiny halogen flood lights for walls in nooks. They are also pin type, but not the same size as the GU24 base. These are smaller. I haven’t found any LED bulbs for that as yet, but I’m sure I will.
I replaced the garage bulbs last year, so that’s all set.
The bedrooms are a different story. Each room has this dome like fixture, and I finally got around to taking a dome off to see what was needed to replace the light. Well, it’s a hard wired fluorescent bulb! I’ve never seen a hard wired bulb in any home I’ve ever lived in. So, this is rather strange. I’ll have to shut off the electrical, unwire that thing, put in a twist or GU24 socket, and go on from there. Surely that won’t happen for quite some time, but since our bedroom lights aren’t on that much, I’m not too concerned with the energy reduction just yet.
Overall, I’m quite happy with our step into the modern era with respect to our lighting. It’s quite expensive to replace all the lights in our house. So, it’s not just a matter of cost savings. Each bulb will pay for itself over the course of our ownership of the house. Reducing our overall energy consumption is a bigger deal. Of course, I’m counter balancing with the usage of a massive computer, 3D printers, and CNC router, but those are all occasional usage. I’ll ride my bicycle more in order to compensate my carbon foot print.
It’s been a fun adventure. All the different kinds of lights, the balancing act on the stairs with the ladder, and generally contemplating lighting color temperature and the like has been quite an education. We’ll see if we get our energy usage down around our neighbors with these changes. Of course, they’re all doing the same, so it’s kind of a race to a coleman lamp fueled bottom. We’ll see.
I saw this notification in an email: Fri 11/18 Crane in parking lot 11/19-11/20 Building Closed
Now, it might be a sign of the times, or where I live, or my general gullability or stupidity or both, but this what my first thought: Oh, there must be some rare bird which landed in front of that building, and they’re shutting down the building for a few days so it doesn’t get hurt. I had visions of a rare bird, perhaps with a broken wing, maybe a whole family of cranes…
Then I thought, oh, wait, they’re talking about a construction crane, not a bird…
Just goes to show you the breadth and depth of knowledge, the openness, the empathy, that I as a programmer must possess…
Or, I’m just going senile.
On this day, the interwebs brought me an interesting story. There is this song from the C&C music factory: Things that make you go hmmm. This story is one of those things that make you go hmmm. You can look up the names “Pamela Ramsey Taylor” and “Beverly Whaling”, and get the general idea of what this story is about.
It’s basically about a woman freely expressing her relief that there will be a first lady in the White House who is more suitable to her sensibilities. She uses very interesting wording, which may lead you to believe she’s some racist, or at the very least kind of clueless. She gives apology, and the common refrain of “ask my friends, I’m not a racist!”.
Not wanting to get into all that name labeling, I just thoughts I’d drop a few words here to remind myself what really beautiful classy strong women look like. So, here’s my short list of beautiful, strong, classy women who I would not have minded seeing in the White House over the past couple of hundred years.
- Sally Hemmings
- Harriet Tubman
- Josephine Baker
- Wilma Rudolph
- Rosa Parks
- Marie Daly
- Diana Ross
- Maya Angelou
- Florence Griffith Joyner
- Condolleeza Rice
- Serena Williams
- Michelle Obama
A slave lover to a president, a slave emancipator, entertainers, sports figures, scientists, poetic and prophetic thinkers, and world tinkerers, beauties, and sports beasts. They’re all there and tons more like them exist. They might be ‘apes’ if by that we really mean “primate”, meaning “prime, of the first order”. These ladies are all of the first order, top of the top, and any one of them could be fit to be in the White House.
I don’t think it’s helpful to shame such people that make what feel like politically incorrect statements. It just drives them underground, and in private, with their like minded friends, their echo chamber commentary will self reinforce, and erupt later forms more destructive and extreme. Rather, I would like to meet such commentary with open arms and say “what really bothered you about that? I want to understand…”
But alas, this is the day of Twitter, and; squirrel…. distraction. This story will pass, the echo chamber will exist, and everyone will run along to their next distraction.
In the meanwhile, I’m going to continue to think about which guy will look good as a first husband, when we finally get around to electing a woman to the White House.
I wasn’t really looking for a new 3D printer, the Afinia H800 in the garage has been doing duty for the past year, and it’s been fine. I have generally liked the Up! printers over the past few years, primarily for their ease of use as it relates to support material removal. I recently took a look at a couple of reviews of this latest Prusa i3 MK2. Prusa is a well known name in the RepRap community, and I built an earlier version of a Prusa machine, before he actually created a company for them. That earliest experience (circa 2011) was very raw, and typical of the machines of that day, it wasn’t that great compared to the Up! of that day.
This new one caught my eye for a few reasons. Number one is the auto bed leveling. It has this probe thing checks 9 spots on the bed for distance and whatnot. It does this check before every print, so it stays accurate no matter what. Then there’s this ‘live z adjust’, which essentially is a micro adjustment that tells the distance from the probe tip to the tip of the hot end. This allows you to really find tune the first layer of filament as it’s being deposited on the bed. That’s really great. It makes height adjustment really easy, as compared to trying to slide a piece of paper under the nozzle, and doing mechanical height adjustments while you do it.
There are two things about the bed that make it especially nice. First is that the bed itself is the heated element. There’s not a separate heating element and then the bed. The bed is the heater. The bed is covered with this PEI material, which seems to be better than build tak, which I use in the Afinia machine. So far, I guess it works. If you really need to get super sticky, you can use a glue stick, for printing PETG or Nylon I guess. Haven’t done that yet. After Z height adjustment, I have found that PLA sticks just fine. I did notice curling at the edges on a few prints though. I’ll micro adjust some more, and it should be fine.
I purchased the pre-assembled machine. I noticed right out of the box there was a slight problem.
Those 4 zip ties are meant to be holding the linear bearings in tight to the orange carriage. In my case, all six of them (4 on the top bearings, 2 on the bottom) were broken. At first I thought “oh, exercise for the reader, I’m supposed to put this final bit together”, but no, they were just broken, and needed to be replaced. The box comes from the Czech republic, so somewhere along the line, this carriage must have really been tweeked to put enough pressure on these ties to cause them to break. No matter though. I had some zip ties left over from the PC build, so I was able to repair and replace. I did not notice anything else out of whack, so I went ahead and started printing.
One of the other reasons I went with this printer is the supposed support in Windows 10s 3D Builder application. I haven’t actually gotten that to work yet, but I should be able to print directly from whithin Windows without requiring any additional software. That will be nice, as then I can stay within the sweetness of that Windows app.
Other than the broken ties, this machine is a good basis for playing around with a lot of stuff. Filament loading and ejection is nice and easy, and Prusa now has a multi-color option they’re experimenting with.
At roughly $900 shipped, this printer might make for a good solid inexpensive and reliable option to build a print farm of perhaps 6 printers. At this price, I could put together 6 printers for roughly the price of a single Type-A machines printer ($5,000). That would give tremendous print capacity, and a solid high quality no-nonsense printer to boot.
Well, it’s finally done
I began this journey with creating the excuses for doing the build in the first place, and then purchasing the various parts.
Now here is the fully assembled thing. Some final thoughts. The scariest part was doing the water cooling piping. I practiced tube bending on a waste piece before embarking on the final pieces. Like a plumber, it’s helpful to plan out where the pipes are going, do some measurements, then do bending on cutting. Really I was afraid that once it got assembled, it would be springing leaks all over the place ruining the fairly expensive electronics. When I first put the tubing together, I tested by running some distilled water through the system to flush things out.
In the end, there were no leaks, and everything runs beautifully, and cool. Having done this once now, I can see redoing the tubing at some point to make it more fancy, but for now, it works just fine, and looks cool.
One thing of note, this thing is really quiet. You literally need to almost stick your ear into the various fans to hear them at all. The power supply fan is dead quiet. This is dramatically different than the power supply on my shuttle PC, which I thought was fairly quiet. Now the Shuttle PC sounds like a jet engine in comparison.
The fans on the cooling radiator are whisper quiet as well, and provide those cool lighting effects to boot. Really this thing shows off best in a fairly dark room where the various glowing light effects can be seen.
The noisiest part of the entire build is actually the disk drive. You wouldn’t normally think of that, but when things are absolutely silent, to the point where the AC fan in a room is way louder, in a quiet room, the steady rumble of the disk drive is the most notable sound.
I’m loving it so far. I feel a sense of accomplishment in putting it together. I got to use it as a visual aid for the latest cohort of the LEAP class. Having a transparent case makes it easy to point at stuff, and the liquid cooling just adds a nice wow factor.
As far as the OS is concerned, I installed Windows 10 Pro. I figure even if I want to run Linux, I can simply use Hyper-V to create Linux VMs and go that way. Given that the graphics card can run 4 monitors at a time (I think), that’s more than enough to give me the illusion of a common desktop, with two Windows screens, and a third with Linux on a VM. So, it’s a sweet combo.
As for the excuse to be able to run the Vulkan API on a modern graphics board, that’s coming along. I had to install Visual Studio, build a LuaJIT, and dust off the cobwebs of my Vulkan ffi binding. All in due time. For now, the screaming machine is being used to type this blog post, and otherwise sitting beside my desk looking cool. I’ll have to design a desk specifically for it just to add to the DIY nature of the thing.
I definitely want to post this note to myself, in time capsule form, so I can look back in 4 or 8 years and see what I thought was about to happen.
More importantly than the election itself, there was a game between the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks the previous monday night (Nov 7, 2016). There were plenty of iffy calls as usual, and one exciting one in particular at the end of the first half. This call involved Richard Sherman disrupting a field goal attempt. In the process of trying to block the kick, he’s clearly off sides, and ultimate touches the ball and bumps into the kicker. At full speed, the outcome seems obvious, and the Bills of course are looking for a roughing the kicker call, which never comes. Perplexed, the chorus of “cheater”, “dirty player”, “stupid refs” goes up in the twitter verse. The kicker’s wife tweets something dumb, twitter verse errupts with “racism” calls, and things are just out of control.
In hindsight, and review by calmer heads, it turns out that the rules are such that if the refs don’t blow a whistle, then what Richard Sherman did is perfectly legal, even if appearing abhorant. But, the headlines are all “Richard Sherman, dirty player, roughing the kicker non-call, the Bills could have been closer and possibly won the game in the 4th quarter”. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Next day, roll forward to the US election. Trump has been on a tare for months, saying all manner of rough and unpleasant things. We’re all in shock and the revelations coming forward almost daily. Democrates are salivating, not believing their luck in running against such a poor candidate. Could not dream of a more unfit person to run against. And yet, Hillary Clinton can’t quite seem to rise above him very far in the poles. Certainly not the landslide inducing lead you would expect to have against such a poor candidate. The only problem is, as poor as Trump was, Clinton appeared to be an even poorer choice.
History books will be full of analysis of why Clinton lost. For me, it was a fairly simple formula. She simply did not motivate the electorate to vote for her. In an election where populist sentiment was on display, the constant non-stop country crossing of Trump, the constant Trump in the media, was just too much for the calm cerebral policy wonk speech making of the Clinton candidacy. Just like the non-call in the Seahawks game. The Trump supporters were like the instant tweeted response calling for dramatic change immediately. The Clinton campaign was like the non-call, they were perhaps right, but they didn’t capture the emotion of the moment. In the election, the emotion of the moment won out, and Trump was elected, while the cool calm and collected stayed home, or voted for someone else in protest.
Whither now? My brother and I though Trump would win over the summer because of the way he captured the Republican party. Just a simple recognition that he came out of the blue, and ran a campaign that the established political systems had no idea how to deal with. They followed their traditional formulas, whereas Trump followed his reality TV success formula. So, what happens next?
Counter to what the non-trump supporters might believe, this guy is pretty smart, regardless of all the commentary. He is astute enough to know how to rile a crowd and get popular support. In his first hundred days, or so, I’d expect he will do lightning strikes with executive orders. He will try to reverse as much Obama driven stuff as possible. This will play to his base. In particular, he’ll go after stuff that has no real consequence, but plays well to the cheering masses. Certainly anything related to immigration, perhaps go after a few key flag burning cases, put some investment into border security. Roll back various rules and regulations where he can, so show that he’s getting government out of our hair. Rudy Giuliani will become that supreme court nominee. He could be secretary of state, but I think he would rather stay at home, and get his hands into shaping generations to come from the calm comforts of the bench.
Then, he’ll settle down and have to deal with things like the middle east, a resurgent Russia, and a China which will certainly probe and push hard.
On immigration, I’d expect that he’ll pretty much do what Obama has been doing, which is exporting as many un-documented people as is feasible. Obama has already been doing that in record numbers, so ultimately, Trump will just continue, but will make a better show of it, actually being at the border as the buses roll up and showing the ‘adios’ as people are shown the way home.
Foreign policy, he’ll become buddy buddy with Putin. Putin will say “Look Donald, can I call you Donald? You don’t really care about Ukraine do you? How about you look the other way while I just sort of annex the whole thing, and I’ll pull out of Seria?” Trump will think, ‘yah, that sounds good, there’s no oil in the Ukraine that I care about, and I could get a win for bringing peace to the middle east, sounds like a good deal’, and that will be that.
The Phillipines might be interesting. He’ll support strong man Duterte, and say “Look here, my daughter runs my businesses you know, I have nothing to do with those right now. I hear she wants to build a beautiful resort in the phillipines, I don’t know. I don’t know who the shareholders would be, but they’ll probably make a lot of money you know. Probably well connected people in the Phillipines, I don’t know. I do know I need to keep bases open there though. What do you say friend?”
Looking at Nafta, ripped up and re-negotiated? Hmmm, we’ll see on that one. Mexico, US, Canada are a fairly strong trading block. The US leverages Mexican workers on this side of the border to keep our various goods and services inexpensive. We leverage workers and factories on the other side of the border for the same reason. Large US businesses already benefit from things staying the way they are. This is a play for the smaller companies in the US who are not competing on the global scale. They need more protections from foreign competition (primarily Chinese goods dumping), but realistically, they simply don’t have the products at a competitive price to compete. Short of reducing our wages to the levels seen in those foreign countries, we’re in a tough spot. We could see some token gestures, but ultimately it comes down to having a competitive workforce in a global economy. We need to go upscale, providing services that low wages won’t get. And that’s the crux of a generational transformation for the American workforce.
I doubt nafta will be ‘torn up’. The Transpacific one though, that might stall, at least until it gets negotiated in a way that will favor a post white house Trump more favorably that it might currently.
Jobs creation? Bringing those American companies back home? That’s also a toughy. Those ostensibly “American” companies are international conglomerates. Not likely to ‘repatriate’ the hundreds of billions of dollars they hold in various other countries, just to be taxed. They’re very good at keeping that money moving, and out of the hands of tax hungry countries. Trump knows the tax codes, and could maneuver, but again, post white house trump likely loves things to stay the way they are.
And on and on it goes. I expect there to be a lot more attention on the white house. I expect Trump to be very popular initially. I expect him to put on a good enough show, and there to not be any viable candidates to oppose him, over the next 4 years. I expect him to get reelected. I also expect him to feel the weight of the office. I expect the flourish he shows in the first year or two to diminish somewhat by the end of his first term. I expect the world to continue to be a dangerous angry place as world power is rapidly shifting. I expect the disillusioned to wake up after the end of it all and realize they’re no better off than when Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Bush were in office.
This is a generational inflection point. This is what change looks like. It’s going to be a fantastic and scary ride, and we’ll end up on a different place, on a slightly different path than we’ve been on lately.
And what else? SpaceX, Tesla, Musk will continue to be in the news. Azure will continue to grow, water will continue to be an issue in the middle east, the temperature will continue to rise, diapers will continue to need changing. I will continue to type out musings.